Democracy in Action
Update: Apparently, it’s over. Kerry has called Bush to concede. My thoughts below remains for posterity.
There is some pretty sobering news today if you’re an American Democrat or if you’re one of the eight-out-of-every-ten “foreigners” like me that think the first Bush Administration has been and remains a complete disaster.
The worst news is simply stated. More than half of all Americans who cast votes in this 2004 election chose George W. Bush. For all the blather and noise about how Bush’s victory in 2000 was illegitimate, there is nothing anyone can say about that this time. He won a majority, point finale. As I write this, the current official count puts Bush 3.5 million votes ahead of John Kerry, and Ralph Nader played absolutely no role in it this time. Say it with me, folks: Americans have democratically chosen to elect George W. Bush.
Second, Bush won Florida, and handily. Granted, there are supposedly more than a million absentee ballots yet to be counted in that, ahem, bedrock of democracy, but Kerry would have to win about 75% of those to have any shot at overtaking Bush. That noise you hear is the “Sorry, better luck next time” buzzer, sounding for Kerry.
Third, the Republicans made gains in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Americans apparently approve of Republicans as legislators, gerrymandering not withstanding.
It’s almost 10 o’clock on November 3, 2004, and nothing is official right now. Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico are still up for grabs, technically, but — and no offence to New Mexicans and Iowans — only Ohio really matters now, and if the media hadn’t been burned so badly in 2000 for prematurely calling the election, this wouldn’t even be considered close. With 100% of precincts reporting in Ohio, Bush leads Kerry by more than 100,000 votes. At issue now are absentee ballots and the so-called “provisional” ballots, the validity of which is uncertain.
It is possible that these ballots, which may number as high as 250,000, may yet make a difference. Maybe provisional voters skew heavily toward Kerry. Maybe absentees skew heavily toward Kerry. Maybe, maybe, maybe. In all probability not. I’m telling you now: if not for the 2000 Florida debacle, this election would be over in the eyes of the media, and no one would care what the Ohio Secretary of State had to say about it, wrong or right.
So what’s the deal? Non-Americans are incredulous at the idea that George W. Bush’s presidency could be considered a success. If you read most non-American newspapers or watched non-American TV news, or if you read one of the myriad tell-all books about this administration — some written by former and disgruntled members of it — then there is one obvious conclusion: the Bush Administration has squandered its political capital, made a quagmire of the terrorism problem, most of all in Iraq, and has done its best to fight for the rich, the privileged and Big Business, while ignoring the needs of just about everyone else.
If you’re an American voter, however, that is apparently wholly up for debate.
Yesterday’s exit polls proved that you can’t believe exit polls at all, at least not when it comes to predicting a winner. What you can believe is some of the comparative data the exit polls contain.
The single most indicative exit poll question, in my opinion, is this: How are things going for the U.S. in Iraq?
The results for that question are, to me, mind-boggling:
52% of exit-poll respondents said things are going badly. Of those people, 82% chose Kerry.
43% of respondents said things are going well in Iraq, and 90% of those people chose Bush.
Think about that. More than four out of ten Americans think things are just ducky in Iraq, and those are the very same people that voted for Bush, overwhelmingly. I think you’d be hard-pressed to find one out of ten non-Americans who think things are going well in Iraq for the U.S.
There is some pretty hard evidence to suggest that most Bush supporters are living in a parallel universe. They simply don’t get the same news other people get, and therefore come to very different conclusions about the state of the world.
I find that more depressing than anything else. I have no qualms about saying it now: I think supporters of the Bush administration are severely deluded about the ramifications of this administration.
Of course at the end of the day, the Democrats blew it by running such a weak candidate. John Kerry offered very little to American voters other than the fact that he wasn’t Bush. If you’re rabidly anti-Bush, that’s fine, I guess, but if you’re not, and it’s clear most Americans aren’t — not in that visceral way most of us non-Americans are — then Kerry was a limp, windy candidate, and Republican spinsters did a masterful job at exaggerating all of his weak points.
There may still be a surprise to come in this election. Who knows what legal wrangling will arise when the votes are counted in Ohio. Make no mistake though: anything but a Bush victory now is highly improbable. The next four years are going to be rough, as the Bush Administration will have even less reason than ever to worry about placating non-supporters.
Previously: Other Events I Never Thought I’d See In My Lifetime
Subsequently: Bat Right, Swing Left?
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